Trump’s flood of false claims about Ukraine

[Thiệu Ngô]

In remarks and social media posts, the president echoed Russian talking points.

by Glenn Kessler

“Today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years. You should have ended it — three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

— President Donald Trump, in remarks to reporters, Feb. 18

Almost three years to the day since Russia invaded Ukraine, President Donald Trump accused Ukraine of starting the war. He made his comment after being asked about Ukraine’s irritation at not being invited to peace talks held in Saudi Arabia between Russian and U.S. officials.

“I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat,” Trump said. “Well, they’ve had a seat for three years and a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily, just a half-baked negotiator could have settled this years ago without … the loss of much land, very little land, without the loss of any lives.”

Trump’s declaration was shocking. Mike Pence, his former vice president, posted on X: “Russia launched an unprovoked and brutal invasion claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. The Road to Peace must be built on the Truth.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Trump of living in a Russian-made “disinformation space” — and then Trump shot back with an attack on Truth Social.

Here’s an assessment of Trump’s misleading statements on Ukraine in recent days.

“You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

— Remarks, Feb. 18

Trump is echoing the Russian position that it was pushed into the conflict. It’s akin to saying Japan was forced into attacking Pearl Harbor because the United States imposed a trade embargo in 1940, depriving Japan of oil. The trade embargo came after Japan’s provocative actions in the Pacific, such as the 1931 occupation of Manchuria following a Japanese-manufactured incident.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a long list of grievances about Ukraine, including the falsehood that it is an obscure entity — “Vladimir Lenin’s Ukraine” — that was created as a result of a struggle between Lenin and Joseph Stalin after the Bolshevik revolution toppled the Russian empire.

The reality is that Ukrainian culture and language have existed for centuries and a Ukrainian nationalist movement sprang up in the mid-1800s, angering the czars. While parts of what is now Ukraine were part of the Russian empire, the rest of the state was, at various times, under the control of Poland, Lithuania and Austria-Hungary.

Moreover, when Ukrainians were given a choice of remaining with Russia in a 1991 national referendum, 84 percent of eligible voters went to the polls — and more than 90 percent, including many non-Ukrainians, cast ballots for independence.

But for Putin, Ukraine is inherently Russian. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians trace their origins to the medieval empire of Kievan Rus, the first East Slavic Orthodox state that contained parts of the territories of contemporary Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. (Ukrainians would argue that Kievan Rus has nothing to do with Russia and that Moscow did not even exist when Kievan Rus was established.)

Putin has also been riled by the increasing pro-Western orientation of Ukraine’s government, alleging that it was engineered by the United States through financial support for democracy efforts in the country. American diplomats were involved in the creation of a new government in 2014, when a pro-Russian leader was toppled — which led Russia to seize Crimea.

There has long been an argument in U.S. foreign policy circles about whether the United States made a mistake by enlarging NATO, starting with three former Warsaw Pact nations — the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland — in 1999. In 2004, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — former Soviet republics — even joined the alliance.

Some analysts say NATO expansion was unnecessarily provocative and a violation of agreements made with Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed. Jack Matlock, a former U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, has called it “the most profound strategic blunder made since the end of the Cold War.”

For Putin, the last straw came when NATO said at the 2008 Bucharest summit that Ukraine and Georgia were on a path to becoming members of NATO. The phrasing was a compromise — President George W. Bush had pushed for a fast track — but the membership pledge was seen as a commitment, and it has been consistently reaffirmed by NATO leaders.

Last week, Trump expressed sympathy for Russia’s position. “I don’t see any way that a country in Russia’s position could allow them, just in their position, could allow them to join NATO,” he said on Feb. 14. “I don’t see that happening.” He also falsely said Russia invaded because President Joe Biden said Ukraine could join NATO. As we noted, eventual membership has been a U.S. position since 2008.

As to whether Ukraine could have avoided a Russian invasion by offering to give up its NATO dreams and land that Russian separatists has seized, that’s only speculation.

Zelensky is “down at 4 percent approval rating.”

— Remarks, Feb. 18

Trump often cites fantasy polls. While Zelensky’s popularity has fallen as the war has dragged on, a survey conducted this month by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, a prominent Ukrainian polling organization, said 57 percent of Ukrainians trust Zelensky. That’s an increase of five percentage points from a survey in December.

“A Dictator without Elections.”

— Truth Social post, Feb. 19

Zelensky won an overwhelming election in 2019 and was up for reelection in 2024, but martial law was declared in 2022 as a result of the Russian invasion. It would be difficult to hold elections during war and when Russia holds 20 percent of the country. Parliamentary factions have agreed to hold elections six months after martial law is lifted.

“Zelenskyy talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won. … The United States has spent $200 Billion Dollars more than Europe.”

— Truth Social post, Feb. 19

Trump’s numbers, as usual, are wrong. The United States has appropriated just over $174 billion, the Congressional Research Service said in a report issued last month. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which tracks support for Ukraine, says the United States and the European Union have provided roughly the same amount of military aid, while the Europeans have provided far more nonmilitary aid than the United States — $73 billion vs. $52 billion.

“On top of this, Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is ‘MISSING.’”

Zelensky has never said this. Trump seems to be referring to the fact that Zelensky said in an interview with the Associated Press that Ukraine has received $75 billion in direct aid, far less than the number often cited. “$100 billion of these 177, we never received,” Zelensky said. “When it’s said that Ukraine received $200 billion to support the army during the war, that is not true. I don’t know where all the money is.”

His comment was spread across social media, with people such as Elon Musk amplifying posts suggesting the U.S. aid was missing through nefarious means.

Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, pushed back against the social media furor. He noted that “we have a pretty good accounting of where it is going” and that much of the money was spent in the United States to replenish military stocks.

As we have noted, much of U.S. aid never leaves the United States. Our analysis of the 2024 Ukraine aid bill found that 80 percent would never leave the United States or would go to the Pentagon or U.S. intelligence.



— Truth Social post, Feb. 19