Study: Trump Immigration Crackdown Could Shrink U.S. Workforce by 15.7 Million by 2035

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Exclusive: Trump immigration plan may wipe out 15M jobs by 2035, study claims

By Russell Contreras

The Trump administration's immigration crackdown is projected to reduce the U.S. workforce by 6.8 million people by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035, per a study first shared with Axios.

Why it matters: Fewer workers in the labor force could have dramatic effects on the U.S. economy, from lower economic growth to reductions in the nation's goods and services produced.

A new study projects that President Donald Trump’s intensified immigration crackdown could reduce the U.S. workforce by 6.8 million people by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035, according to data shared exclusively with Axios by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).

The Washington-based think tank found that tighter restrictions on both legal and illegal immigration will significantly slow labor force growth. Roughly 2.8 million fewer workers by 2028 would result from legal immigration changes, while 4 million would stem from illegal immigration enforcement. By 2035, one-third of the total decline is projected to come from legal immigration policies.

The report warns that the loss of millions of workers could lower GDP growth by roughly half a percentage point annually and increase federal debt. The shortage may particularly affect industries like manufacturing, health care, energy, and agriculture, as the population ages.

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson defended the administration’s approach, saying Trump’s workforce agenda aims to “capitalize on untapped potential” while enforcing immigration laws. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force,” Jackson said.

The administration has pledged to deport up to one million immigrants annually — more than double the record removals under former President Obama in 2012 — a figure analysts say could further magnify the projected labor losses.