Political Analyst Says Trump Has Made Huge Gains With Traditional Dem Voting Bloc

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The election news for former President Donald Trump continues to get better as early voting has begun and the country moves closer to Election Day. On that note, NBC elections analyst Steve Kornacki examined new polling on Sunday during “Meet the Press,” highlighting that Latino voters have been trending away from the Democratic Party over the past 12 years. The gap has narrowed from 41 points in 2012 to just 12 points today.

}We see every four years the Latino vote becomes a bigger and bigger share of the overall electorate. Well, among Latinos, our poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 54% to 40%. Now, for some context. This is a little bit better for Democrats than they were doing among Hispanics when Joe Biden was their candidate. But I think the bigger story here is historically,” he began.

“54% to 40% now is a 14-point advantage for the Democrats. Take a look back at the last three presidential elections, and these were the results in the exit polls among Hispanic voters. That 14. Look at that cut there of almost 20 points less than just four years ago. And four years ago, we were saying Donald Trump had made inroads with Hispanic voters,” Kornacki continued.

“This suggests that that has continued apace. So what is driving this shift? Well, we see a few big gaps here. A gender gap. Familiar with this one, certainly. Men tied when it comes to this race. Women, a 26-point advantage. Again, among Hispanic voters here, there’s a gender gap, as we see with polls of overall voters. Also, age is a big factor here. Look at this. Voters over 50, Hispanic voters over 50, almost a 60-point advantage for Harris, and she’s barely leading with Hispanic voters under 50,” he went on.

“In fact, among men under 50, Donald Trump actually leads in our poll by 9 points, a 9-point advantage there, men under 50 for Trump. We also see an education divide. Again, we talk about this a lot when we’re talking about the overall pool of voters too. Men without four-year degrees, that’s now a double-digit Trump constituency in our poll. Men with degrees siding with Harris here, bigger margins among women, but we are seeing a bit of that education gap,” Kornacki said.

“And we are seeing a religion gap here. Among Catholic Hispanics, 20 points for Harris. Protestant Hispanics, 26 points for Donald Trump. Talking a little bit about the issues. ‘What’s the most important issue?’ we asked in this poll. Abortion clocking in there. And – and Kamala Harris, big advantage, we see that. ‘Being competent and effective,’ Kamala Harris leading there as well,” he said.WATCH:
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However, he then revealed why Trump is gaining with the demographic: “But then the biggies. These are the ones that Hispanic voters are saying are the most important to them. Economy, small advantage Trump. Inflation, nine-point advantage. And how about that? On the border and on immigration, Donald Trump with a double-digit advantage: 13 points in our poll. When asked, ‘Who would be better on this issue?’ Hispanic voters are saying, ‘It’s Donald Trump.’ And that is part of a broader shift here on basic attitudes among Hispanic voters toward immigration.”
Concluding, Kornacki said:
Look, when Donald Trump first ran in 2016, 69% of Hispanics said, “Immigration helps the country more than it hurts.” That’s come down to 62%. And the number who say it hurts more than helps, all the way up to 35%. There’s something bigger and broader going on here, and I think you can see it finally with this. We asked a basic question of Hispanic voters, “Which party do you more identify with?” 37% now say Republicans, 49% say Democrats.
But again, look at how this has shifted in just the last dozen years. In 2012, this was a 41-point advantage for the Democrats. It has come all the way down to 12 points, Kristen, a 29-point drop in terms of that gap there on – on which party Hispanics identify with in just 12 years.