2/ "EXCLUSIVEWhy the race isn't as close as you think: With one week to go, analyst CRAIG KESHISHIAN predicts the polls are missing a hidden voter surge"
Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...elated-replace
An apple does not fall far from the tree. Children learn their foundational beliefs from their parents. Daughters bond closely to their fathers in their early years. We all know about the archetypal “Daddy’s girl.” Despite repeated denials, Kamala was raised by her father, a prominent Marxist professor in California. Newspaper articles from 1975 confirm her father’s commitment to the Marxist/Communist cause.
Donald Harris, Ph.D. never tried to hide his commitment to Marxism. He was so well known within the communist community that he was the winner of what Stanford University described as a “six-month round-the-world” search for the most qualified Marxist professor to poison the minds of its students. The local newspaper, the Stanford Daily, reported that a professor in the university’s Department of Economics described Harris as “one of the leading young people in Marxist economics.”
When challenged to explain her current, supposedly more-centrist positions versus her prior recorded radical comments, Kamala reassured the CNN interview audience, “My values have not changed.” Stop for a moment. Ask yourself how many of your life’s lessons were learned as a child. How many of your values came from the words and actions of your parents? Then ask yourself, “How effective would a skilled teacher, a university professor, be at implanting these “values” on his adoring daughter?
Image: Kamala’s father. Fair use.
There is no proof her father still influences Kamala’s life. Supposedly their relationship is “strained.” But if that is so, why would Dr. Harris have moved to Washington? His home is less than a mile away from Kamala’s White House office. Investigative reporter Paul Sperry argues that there is evidence they are closer than they let on. The trademarked slogan of the National Enquirer, “Enquiring minds want to know,” is operative here.
Dems, denying senior Harris’ influence over his daughter, defend their supposed separation by saying, “Dr. Harris didn’t even go to the Democratic convention in Chicago.” Ask yourself, if you were a driver in the DNC wheelhouse, and your presidential candidate’s father was a noted Marxist, would you let him within 1,000 miles of the convention? It’s only 695 miles from The Windy City to The Swamp, so I assume they thought they were safe in keeping Harris, Sr. and Harris, Jr. 2/3 of a thousand miles and a time zone away from each other.
So, the question becomes, “Is Kamala Harris a Marxist?” Considering what she learned from her father during her formative years and her prior public statements from years ago now haunting her, why wouldn’t she be?
She keeps saying, “My values haven’t changed.” I think we should believe her!
I wrote a similar article when Joe Biden was still a presidential candidate. Back then, the polls suggested that a Trump landslide was a real possibility. Now the polls are closer, and some pollsters claim that Kamala Harris will win. I disagree.
Please remember that most of what you are about to read is my opinion based on an analysis of political articles and polling data. As such, it should be taken with a grain of salt.
The reason you should be both doubtful and cautiously optimistic is simple. Although the polls say the election will be close, Trump is currently in the best position polling-wise of any of his three presidential campaigns.
Let’s set the stage for this election. Biden, Kamala Harris, and the Democrat elite raided the U.S. Treasury to the tune of over $3 trillion during their first two years in office. This was done under the guise of the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS Act, and the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act. The resulting tidal wave of government cash caused inflation to spike, pushing prices up over 20% in four years. Everything from food and electricity to insurance and interest rates went up and have stayed up.
At the same time, President Biden and Border Czar Harris allowed almost anyone to illegally cross our borders. Estimates are that around 8 million people crossed the border, with another 1.5 million got-aways not apprehended by the Border Patrol. According to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, over 660,000 have criminal histories. The cost to house, feed, and care for these people is at least $150 billion/year nationwide. That money could have gone to U.S. citizens to help pay for natural disasters and other problems.
Crime related to illegal immigration is rising. According to revised FBI estimates, violent crime rose by 4.5% in 2022. Despite incomplete FBI statistics and mainstream media attempts to whitewash the issue, a recent study discovered that illegals are roughly twice as likely to be in prison in New York as other state residents, four times as likely in New Jersey, and five times as likely in Arizona. There have been many high-profile crimes involving illegals and foreign gang members in Colorado, Georgia, and many other states.
I could name many other issues — everything from Afghanistan to electric vehicle mandates to DIE, weaponization of the Justice Department and the FBI, and on and on.
All of this ill use and poor judgment has produced some damning polling statistics. According to the Real Clear Politics averages, roughly 64% of voters believe that the country is on the wrong track. Roughly 60% disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, inflation, and immigration. In an Economist/YouGov poll, only 35% said they were better off now than four years ago. In an Atlas Intel poll, 52% said immigration was the greatest challenge for the U.S. In a CBS News poll, 62% were in favor of a program to deport all illegal aliens. Since Kamala said she would have done nothing different from Biden, these numbers could prove to be a liability.
This may have already happened in response to Biden’s left-wing policies. According to Gallup, Republicans now have a three-point party affiliation advantage for the first time in the thirty-two years Gallup has been keeping records. Pew Research says the Democrat/Republican registration numbers are almost even.
Polls show that Kamala will get less support from blacks and Hispanics than Biden in 2020. Pew Research claims that Biden received 92% of the Black vote and 59% of the Hispanic vote. According to the Economist/YouGov poll, Kamala has 80% of the black vote and 55% of the Hispanic vote. Atlas Intel says Kamala gets only 67% of the black vote and 53% of the Hispanic vote.
The accuracy of political polls over the past two presidential elections has been poor. In 2016, the RCP average overestimated Hillary’s vote by roughly one point nationally. No big deal there. However, the average miss was 7.4 points in states where Trump won. Post-election, the culprit was identified as an undercount of white men and women without a college degree. Polling organizations later claimed they had fixed the problem.
In 2020, the RCP average overstated Biden’s lead by 2.7 points nationally. State polls overestimated Biden’s lead by an average of 4.3 points. The problem was then identified as a combination of low-trust voters, late-deciding voters, and non-response bias, meaning conservatives who refused to answer polls. The possibility that Trump voters might lie to the pollsters was dismissed; however, I think the late-deciding voters were going to vote for Trump all along.
Pollsters claim they have solved what they are now calling the low-propensity Trump voter issue, but they say polling these voters requires more time and money. My personal opinion is that the pollsters don’t have a clue. The hidden/secret/ignored/unpolled Trump vote is real and will make its presence felt. If you want my long take on the hidden Trump vote, click here.
This election has seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to the RCP averages, Trump has the lead in all seven. Whether this holds up when the votes are counted remains to be seen.
Either candidate can win just three battleground states and become the 47th president. For example, if Trump wins a combination of Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it is game over. Kamala can do the same thing.
There is something called the Electoral College bias chart, which claims to tie the popular vote to the number of electoral votes Trump will win. According to this chart, even if Kamala wins the popular vote by a margin of 2 points, Trump will win the Electoral College and the presidency. If Kamala’s margin is anything less than 2 points, chances are Trump will pick up more than the 270 electoral votes he needs. Currently, the RCP national polling average shows the race tied. So, advantage Trump.
What happens if Trump outperforms the polls? If he gets a 1% bump, he will probably sweep the battleground states. That will guarantee him 312 electoral votes. Some Democrat-leaning states could fall if he gets a 2–3% bump. This means Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Maine.
My take is that New Mexico and New Hampshire are the most likely to go Trump. A recent poll suggests Trump has a slight lead in the Shire. Virginia is unlikely to flip due to the number of government workers who reside there.
I’m not sure about Minnesota. When I was a Democrat years ago, I voted for Jimmy Carter. Carter was (and still is) a good man but a lousy president. The next election, I voted for Reagan. In a similar twist, I would tell the good Democrats there to vote for Trump. If you don’t like the result, you can vote for a Democrat next time.
I know not what course others may take, but as for me, I intend to settle in with a few brews and a big bag of chips, cholesterol be damned, and watch CNN on election night. I think it’s gonna be good.
The following is not intended to criticize anyone truly liberal or who keeps an open mind. It is aimed at those who pretend to be liberal but are in fact allies of the Left, which makes them Marxists. Quotation marks on the word “liberal” separate the meaning of the word from its contrary practice.
“Liberal” reporters used to be fond of pointing out that the death of John F. Kennedy marked the end of this nation’s “age of innocence.”
Those “liberal,” more astute and mature observers than all others were in fact obscuring the reality that progress toward excellence in the social, political, and cultural life of America was sliding downhill after that fateful event.
What they would not report, after JFK’s assassination, was the mounting evidence of intellectual and moral decline in America, the likes of which has no record in modern times.
Those not deep asleep in the last several decades have noticed minimum standards of education drop, enduring values crumble, Christianity mocked, the family wounded, and a taste and appetite for cheap entertainment blossom into a multi-billion-dollar entertainment industry.
So, did Americans simply “evolve” into a slumping mental and moral condition? Were the growing changes in culture “inevitable”? “Liberals” would say 'yes.'
But those who were awake knew that Americans were succumbing to a cultural blight being spread by activists of the Left whose leaders saw in the mushing of minds and morals a way to bring about a brave new Marxist world. [A hint here.]
Like their counterparts in the first quarter of the last century, today’s fake liberals feed on Marxist notions of justice, woefully behind the times they wish to change. Most of today’s “liberal” reformers are unaware of the campaign of their Marxist predecessors to make America a socialist nation, ready for the next step to communism. But conscious or not of their Marxist inheritance, they continue to perpetuate the myth that democracy is an evolutionary tool of change instead of a system of governing aimed at increasing not reducing, people’s freedom. Of course, it is their notion of what we should all “evolve into” that must guide us. For fake liberals, this is the definition of democracy, a rabbit hole into which a great many have fallen.
In reality, fake liberals are stalwart illiberals who don’t actually care what democracy is, as long as it can be used to advance a Marxist agenda. If the process is in fact undemocratic, what of it? If the Constitution needs to be ignored or trashed, what’s the problem? “Progress” must not be restricted.
Progress toward what? The Left’s essential definition of the word gives it away: whatever advances their power over society justifies their political of and social reforms. If it requires a total contradiction of justice regarding human beings, if it turns people into slaves of a ruling class instead of participants in government, what of it?
The mental and moral decline in mainstream America has helped such “progress.” After more than half a century of dumbing, of trashing American culture, of feeding gullible Americans platitudes of “social justice” pulled out of Marxist doctrine – e.g., the oppressed class versus the oppressor class – the “woke” now accept practices and behaviors that their forebears would have condemned as criminal.
I’ll be blunt: The woke among us have exposed themselves to a class of elites whose sense of justice is like that of wolves.
What possible justification can there be for this reversal of human justice and wellbeing? The following suggestion is one that I’d place in the list of alleged benefits. Our “liberal” brethren want all to believe that their advocacy and activism has made us more mature than our forebears in that so-called “age of innocence” before the 1960s. For example, promiscuity and abortion are now normal, we don’t distinguish between men and women anymore, children copulate at a much earlier age, excellence and quality are meaningless criteria of achievement, authority comes from moguls of power whose demands must be met or be faced with “cancellation”. . . the list of advances is long.
But can anyone with a true concern for human progress find increasing maturity and growing wisdom in any such evidence? There are a few key questions that must be answered honestly before accepting the claims of “liberals” for advancing human progress. Who in woke society are headed for a healthier and saner life than the rest of us? Who are, instead, on a trip back to pagan times? Why, after countless years of human development, should we be wiser because luminaries like Karl Marx, Joseph Stalin, Mao Zedong and – speeding for brevity past all illustrious Marxists – Barack Obama “enlightened” everybody?
I strongly suspect that the source of brilliance among current “liberals,” like that of their forerunners, is the dread of people rejecting the Marxist variety of dictatorship.
The obvious mess the world is in needs something much deeper and more substantial the political and social sciences. Theories come and go. A tentative science may be endured but a tentative society must face chronic failure. A finger in the shadows of modern life keeps pointing to the spiritual deterioration of current society. Even among those who profess to be religious, God is awash in their beliefs, a stranger in many congregations today. In such a spiritual wasteland, what path can be found to a fuller life and for the needed wisdom of leadership?
By default of washed-out morality and mindless actions, this country has permitted cultural vandals to take it over and rule the inhabitants. Whatever their label (“liberal,” for example), cultural bandits continue to prove their ineligibility to govern America by declaring God irrelevant, His Creation worthless, and the accrued wisdom of ages nonsense. Such appalling ignorance and insanity has stirred enough Americans into speaking out and acting to expose the nonsensee from phony liberals.
As we move in a world overflowing with the products of high technology and the promise of universal well-being, the principal point of life is missed. It’s been said many ways. One that I think expresses it well is that we are put here to grow and flower into our best selves, not just for ourselves but for the society we are part of.
This from-the-bottom-up definition of human progress flies over the heads of fake liberals. But as a top-ranking purpose in life, it is implicit in our having been born. It may be hard to pursue. It may call for sacrifices. It may offend others. But the health and welfare of society and of a nation permit no alternative. Yes, it demands perpetual vigilance against false prophets, among them fake liberals, obsessed with driving everyone to the gate of hell.
In concluding, I must express my deep gratitude for the countless many who have sacrificed, fought and died for America, a land blessed by the hand of God. And I am grateful for the countless many who, in the face of the madness in this country and in the world, bless each life they touch.
Yes, We Can Shrink The Size And Cost Of Government
By Anony Mee
November 1, 2024
One of President Trump’s goals is to reduce the size and cost of government, a heady and necessary project. The first step is for We the People to return Donald Trump to the Chief Executive’s chair and to give him a Congress that will approve his appointees with alacrity and pass his budget proposal. Time is very short, with the FY-2026 budget submission right around the corner. Only massive, immediate changes will meet the goal. Team Trump should be ready to run on Day One.
It will take at least a year to transition to a tidier government because meeting notification requirements, amending and canceling contracts, working with unions and RIF requirements, planning to consolidate infrastructure, and disposing of excess property will all take time.
The annual federal budget sets the priorities, size, functions, and cost of the government for the fiscal year. Agencies have a deadline to submit their budget proposal to the White House. The White House proposal then goes to the House for consideration. Individual members propose hundreds of amendments, mostly to meet campaign promises to their constituencies. After passage through Congress, the budget is signed into law.
The government is huge and very costly, but it serves a few mandated purposes. Let’s review:
Image by Andrea Widburg
Preamble of the Constitution
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
Congress’s specific tasks to enact laws to accomplish the above are enumerated in the Constitution in Article 1, Section 8. They boil down to managing the government’s money and commerce, establishing courts, defining crimes and punishing violations, defending the nation, establishing the Post Office and roads, granting patents and copyrights, and overseeing the District of Columbia and federal facilities.
Inherently governmental activities are defined in law at 48 CFR § 7.503(c) and expand on the above tasks. They include conducting criminal investigations and prosecutions; commanding military forces; conducting foreign relations; determining agency policy, regulations, and program priorities for budget requests; managing federal employees; controlling intelligence operations; procuring goods and services for federal use, managing contracts, and disposing of property; approving agency responses to Freedom of Information Act requests; approving federal licensing actions and inspections; and responding to federal audits.
Basically, the overall work of the Departments of the Treasury, Defense, State, Commerce, and Justice; all intelligence agencies; the Office of Personnel Management; General Services Administration; and the Office of Management and Budget are established priorities, as are the work of Congress and the federal judiciary.
The rest of the Cabinet and the independent agencies seem to have been established solely to expand governmental assistance and control. They do little besides increase the costly regulatory burden on the productive class and rain cash on problems without solving them.
At this point, a multipath approach is needed, starting with across-the-board measures.
Get rid of the baddies. If the federal cyber corps were to do an unannounced overnight purge of all federal devices (computers, laptops, smartphones, etc.) for porn, then thousands of pink slips could be handed out the next day. Do not replace that number of employees. I’m sure Elon could help write the necessary algorithm.
Halt stupid policies in their tracks. Abolish anything that remotely smacks of DEI. Halt all payments related to gender transition. There is no climate crisis. Stop all “green/sustainability” regulations and abolish all attendant projects. For example, $29.3 billion of Energy’s $51 billion FY-2025 budget request is identified for “climate.”
Halt enforcement of all agency-promulgated regulations across all agencies that cannot be directly tied to specific legislative language. Halt all support for illegal activities, including any funding going to illegal migrants or those supporting their movement to and dwelling in the US. Stop all federal activities that promote discrimination, such as grant and contract set-asides for certain genders, races, communities, etc. Get rid of the Jones Act, The Davis-Bacon Act, and any other legislation that increases the cost of federal activities for no benefit.
Retain only competent hires. The government only employs adults. Those adults get trained annually on cybersecurity, prohibited workplace practices, ethics, etc. This training should take place one time, upon employment, with the new hire promising to abide by all the rules for the duration of their employment upon penalty of immediate termination.
Cut federal research grants. Fund only half the cost of staff, equipment, supplies, and services for a research project. If an outside organization can’t find independent funding to cover the other half, plus infrastructure and travel, then there is no need to pursue a proposed avenue of research.
Cut essential agencies down to the quick. Ask the mid- and lower-level managers where the fat is and where nonessential or duplicative work is being funded. They’ll tell you far sooner than those wanting to control an empire.
Ask the hard questions. Is there a need for mail delivery at home? Why should all citizens pay for any local public transportation or for Amtrak when it mostly only serves the NE? Why do welfare payments cover food for a family, yet we still pay for school lunches for the poor?
Start all other agencies at zero. We’re not talking about saving money here; we’re talking about justifying any federal presence and expenses. Why is an agency, commission, or board needed at the federal level? Is there any federal requirement that the states can’t accomplish with their own funds? Is there any need for the Department of Education or the EPA? Why can’t most agencies or their overseas offices be subsumed into the State Department (e.g., USAID, Peace Corps, Commerce, and Agriculture)? Why is Veterans Affairs not part of Defense? Why is Homeland Security not part of Justice? Why isn’t the US Trade Representative part of Commerce? Chop off the few top layers and just incorporate the work they do. Is there any justification for PBS?
It’s 2024. Do we still need federal intervention in farming? Housing? Labor? With less going to the federal government, the people would have a much greater voice in how their tax dollars are spent and ensure that the greatest benefit is to local needs.
Abolish federal student loan guarantees; if individuals or universities are responsible for funding higher education, you can bet the cost will go down and success will go up.
Stop passing money through the federal government. It raises the cost of a project by at least 40% for overhead of collecting, managing, and distributing the funding. So, the $1,200 you received during the SARS-CoV19 scare cost about $1,680 in tax money (yours and your children’s, plus interest).
I like good governance and don’t mind paying for it. However, many see the government as both Mommy and Santa Claus. But it’s not. Letting the government run wild for “the greater good” is a very bad idea.
Some universally applicable regulations and attendant costs make sense. Enforcing minimum workplace, transportation, food, drug, and environmental safety standards are generally good ideas. Spending nearly $60 million of everyone’s taxbucks on a 25-mile stretch of highway to enhance habitat for the Olympic mudminnow was not.
By the midterms, half of Trump’s appointees should have worked themselves out of a job.
Democrats are committing the final sin: weaponizing people
By Lewis Dovland
November 3, 2024
A major battle is brewing in a coming collision of two unstoppable forces. One side is Marxist leftist progressivism and our administrative deep state (both movements roughly 100 years old in America). The second side is Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. This battle will be triggered the day after the November 5th election and may happen no matter which candidate wins for reasons I’ll describe below.
Unfortunately, to the Democrat’s final and shameful adoption of evil, they have managed to weaponize their followers into human ammunition. While BLM and Antifa rioted during the George Floyd era, that was merely a practice run. This time is different. The leftists and administrative state understand that Trump is a true existential threat to their continued power and likely to their organizational existence, of which he plans to start a brick-by-brick dismantling.
The distinction I’m making using the term “weaponize” is one of political violence versus regular political actions.
Image by AI.
The left has placed its followers and most Democratic voters in this panic mode by convincing them of the horrors that they claim Trump will do without any proof and ignoring that he’s already served once and did none of these things. They cannot tell you why because they are the victims of conditioning by the application of Josef Goebbels’s explanation: “A lie told once remains a lie, but a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth.”
They act and respond like zombies. Similar to someone who is deathly afraid of snakes or spiders and totally loses control and freaks out inconsolably when they see one. These supporters are unreachable, and one certainly cannot even approach a discussion on Trump with them. When asked, they are incapable of telling why they hate Trump to the point of wishing him harm.
The left and the administrative state, combined with the support of the mainstream media and our governmental legal system, have fully condemned the half of the country that supports Trump as haters, Nazis, fascists, homophobes, misogynists (I could go on for 20 more). The left is expert at attaching labels to people without a drop of proof. They have managed to convince their followers that Trump is Satan incarnate, will become Hitler, and will throw his opponents in jail or have them shot (again, my list could go on).
Think of how many times we’ve heard that Trump is an “insurrections,” yet not one—not one—of the January 6 detainees have been charged with or found guilty of that charge (proof here), nor has Trump. Yet word on the street is that the left plans to misuse the 14th Amendment to prevent his taking office based on being an insurrectionist. Read that closely: Democrats plan to use an unproven or non-convicted charge of insurrection to apply the 14th Amendment to prevent his taking office. This is just one of the multitudes of lies they use to mislead their base and rile them up.
As to my initial comment that this power may be unleashed no matter who wins the election, I can see riots to stop Trump’s ascent if he wins and punishment brigades going after MAGA supporters if Harris wins. Conservatives/Trump supporters may face direct retribution by these myrmidon (here, here) zombies who will not face punishment for attacking (ala Floyd riots), with high visibility persons subject to January 6-type unending incarceration on trumped up charges. They must do this even if Trump loses, to ensure the patriots are crushed and cannot regroup for the future.
This demonstrates just how desperate the left is to stop Trump. It isn’t about losing an election. It is about losing their entire power structure, carefully crafted over the past 100 years. And ultimately punishing anyone who dares try to stop them.
With Less Than a Week until the Election, What Do the Polls Say?
By Brian C. Joondeph
November 1, 2024
The 2024 election is just days away.
Media coverage, especially on social platforms, is rampant with fake news and misinformation, making it challenging to distinguish between what is real and what is misinformation. Although opinion polls are far from flawless, they offer a quantitative glimpse into the electoral landscape.
I rely on the most trustworthy pollsters to gauge the electorate.
According to Rasmussen Reports, “One week prior to Election Day, former President Donald Trump holds a two-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in the most recent daily tracking poll for the 2024 presidential election.”
This indicates that Trump could win the popular vote.
The last Republican presidential candidate to achieve this was George W. Bush, twenty years ago in 2004.
Screenshot The Last Refuge // by permission
If Trump prevails next week, winning the popular vote may silence some of the anticipated Democratic butt-hurt labeling Trump an "illegitimate president.”
However, the national popular vote does not establish the winner, a lesson that Hillary Clinton learned in 2016.
The next occupant of the White House is determined by the Electoral College, which consists of 50 individual state elections.
According to AtlasIntel, the most reliable pollster from the 2020 election, Trump is forecasted to secure victory with 296 electoral votes, while Harris is expected to receive 242. This isn't a landslide, but it is a solid win.
For a third opinion, Nate Silver has Harris up by a point nationally in his model. But the trend lines nationally and in battleground states are rising for Trump and falling for Harris.
Most states are firmly aligned as red or blue, Republican or Democrat, respectively, and are unlikely to change. As in previous elections, just a few key battleground states will decide the outcome.
RealClearPolitics presents the average polling results from the seven battleground states, providing perspective on the election in relation to the Electoral College. In these states, Trump leads by +1.0.
Looking at specific states, Arizona is Trump +2.5, Nevada is Trump +0.5, Wisconsin is Harris +0.2, Michigan is Harris +0.4, Pennsylvania is Trump +0.8, North Carolina is Trump +1.0, and Georgia is Trump +2.4.
Trump needs the majority, though not necessarily all, of these states to prevail on Nov. 5. While it’s possible to speculate numerous combinations and permutations of these states, the current data, just a week before Election Day, favors Trump.
Since this article started with national polls, let’s look back at previous elections and compare national polls. The RealClearPolitics national average from five days prior to the upcoming election indicates Donald Trump with a +0.4 lead. Though it's a slight advantage, where did candidate Trump stand four and eight years ago?
In 2020, just five days before the election, the national average indicated Joe Biden +7.4, a race he narrowly secured, setting aside election chicanery.
In 2016, just a week before the election, the RCP national average showed Hillary Clinton at +1.3. We all remember the outcome of that race.
Trump's national lead of +0.4 might appear slim, but as Newsweek states, “Republican nominee Donald Trump is slightly ahead of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the average of national polls by aggregator RealClearPolling for the first time since August.”
Trends hold significance, especially during the final days approaching the election.
Crowd size and enthusiasm at political rallies are harder to measure, yet both show support for Trump. An example was his massive recent gathering at Madison Square Garden in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City.
Then there are the snapshots and soundbites. From Trump serving fries at McDonald's a few weeks ago to giving a press conference from a garbage truck a few days ago, Trump is a master at trolling Democrats and the media, throwing their lies and disparagement back in their faces.
Finally, let’s examine betting odds. While opinion polls capture voter desires, betting odds show what bettors anticipate will occur, focusing on their expectations rather than aspirations.
RealClearPolitics' most recent betting odds show Trump with a 63% likelihood of winning the election, while Harris trails at just 36%.
Voting is only part of the equation. As Joseph Stalin said, “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything.” Election integrity is a key issue in this election, with significant differences of opinion on this issue between the two parties.
For instance, in Colorado, “Secretary of State Jena Griswold (Democrat) acknowledges that fraudulent ballots were included in this election.” Additionally, "Passwords for election equipment were made public on the Secretary of State’s official website, which were then quietly corrected without any public notice or remedy.”
In Pennsylvania the Lancaster County Board of Elections found that “Up to 2,500 fraudulent voter registration applications were dropped off in two batches shortly before the deadline.”
A drop box in Vancouver, Washington, was ignited, damaging 475 ballots.
Why can’t America get it right? India counted 640 million votes in a single day. Maricopa County, Arizona, with a population of about 4 million, less than 1% of India's, predicts that ballots may take two weeks to count.
Now we learn that electoral officials have said that some voting machines are experiencing “programming issues” on a nationwide basis. We had “safe and effective” COVID vaccines. Then we had “safe and secure” voting machines.
In deciding not to endorse either presidential candidate, Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos highlighted a crucial point: “Voting machines must fulfill two criteria. They must accurately count the votes, and people must trust that they do. The second criterion is not only distinct but equally vital as the first.”
The reality and the perception of that reality. What are voters' views on our “safe and secure” elections?
It's far from just voting machines that are altering perceptions.
Rasmussen Reports found, “Most voters don’t believe state officials have done enough to prevent voting by illegal immigrants or to stop outside groups from interfering in elections.”
Contrary to the assertions made by Democrats and the media regarding Donald Trump, the genuine “threat to democracy" is election integrity. If voters lose trust in the electoral process, how does America differ from Venezuela, Cuba, or the former Soviet Union?
Are presidents elected or selected? What happened to Abraham Lincoln’s government “of the people, by the people, for the people”?
Following the credible allegations of electoral fraud in 2020, we can only hope that Trump and his team have implemented steps to avoid a recurrence in 2024. Failing to do so would truly fit the definition of insanity.
I believe Trump is astute enough not to repeat the same approach while anticipating a different outcome four years later. It is inconceivable that Trump is not well aware of the forces against him, from the corporate media to the administrative state ruling class, which views Trump as an existential threat, and that he and his campaign are well prepared.
But my wishful thinking and observations may be far off the mark. As Trump would say, “We’ll see what happens.”
Opinion polls and betting odds favor Trump. The final poll takes place on Nov. 5, and we hope the outcome accurately represents the American voters' wishes.
Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a physician and writer. Follow me on Twitter @retinaldoctor, Substack Dr. Brian’s Substack, Truth Social @brianJoondeph, LinkedIn @brian Joondeph, and Email brianjoondeph@gmail. com.
Nh́n theo một cách tổng quát th́ TT Trump có rất nhiều lợi thế. Cho dù ghét hay thương, người dân cũng ư thức được rằng cuộc sống của họ cần trở lại sự cân bằng như trước đây.
Trump từng là một TT và chính sách non nớt của một chính trị gia chập chửng lúc đó cũng đủ để mang lại ḥa b́nh cho TG, và giữ được đời sống an lành cho từng người dân Mỹ. Và Trump hôm nay sẽ như thế nào khi đổi cả tánh mạng của ḿnh chỉ v́ muốn "America Great Again"?
Nhiều cuộc chiến kéo dài đăng đẳng gần 4 năm từ sau khi ông rời chức vụ. Và đó là những cuộc chiến pháp lư được dàn dựng để hại ông. Những nhân chứng cho đến bằng chứng giả tạo liên tục được mang ra cùng với gấn 90% những đài truyền thông được cánh tả sử dụng như vũ khí dùng để tấn công ông ta. Loại bỏ tên Trump ra khỏi phiếu bầu, và rồi cho đến quyết định tồi tệ nhất là ám sát ông cũng đă xảy ra đến hơn một lần. Tất cả những âm mưu này đều lần lượt thất bại, và chỉ giúp cho Trump thấy mạnh mẻ hơn bao giờ. Người dân Mỹ đă thực sự nh́n thấy những ǵ đă và đang xảy ra, rồi chợt bừng tỉnh sau những ngày tháng quá thơ ơ, quá lănh đạm với t́nh trạng thảm hại của đất nước này.
Hơn bao giờ hết, người dân khắp nơi cho dù là tiểu bang xanh hay đỏ. Mọi người đều đứng lên và lần lượt ra ủng hộ cho chính sách "MAGA". Một khi nền Cộng Ḥa sụp đổ th́ tiếng nói của người dân không c̣n được xem trọng. Tương tự như những nước Cộng Sản, sẽ không c̣n tự do ngôn luận và không c̣n khả năng tự bảo vệ. Chính sách bịt miệng người dân bằng những đài mạng và truyền thông trong gần 4 năm qua là một trong những dự án hàng đầu mà XHCN luôn dùng.
Đời sống của người dân sẽ trở lên khó khăn hơn bao giờ. Đổ vỡ trong hôn nhân và rạn nứt trong gia đ́nh sẽ ngày càng lớn. Cha mẹ chỉ có thể sanh con cái, nhưng lại không có quyền quyết định tương lai cho họ. Con đi học với thân phận là nữ, khi trở về th́ lại là phái nam. Những tổn thương này có ai chịu được, khi ḿnh chỉ là những con người bằng xương, bằng thịt?
Câu chuyện người mẹ dắt con vào Walmark và đứa bé tinh nghịch dúi một thỏi chocolate vào túi xách tay của bà. Khi tính tiền cho những món hàng trên xe đẩy bà trả hơn trăm đ̣ng. Đến khi ra cửa th́ bị scanner phát hiện có món đồ chưa trả tiền. Thế là cả đám an ninh cũng như người làm ở đó lôi kéo bà vào pḥng và cư xử như tên trộm. Bà giải thích tôi có thề trả hơn trăm đồng th́ tại sao lại chỉ ăn cắp thỏi kẹo chưa tới $2? Mặc dù bà có lư, nhưng vẫn bị cảnh sát đến lập biên bản và cảnh cáo đủ điều.
Ngược lại th́ hai tên di dân lậu đă hiếp dâm và giết bé gái chỉ mới 12 tuổi lại được thả ra không lâu sau khi bị bắt. Sẽ c̣n bao nhiêu câu chuyện đau ḷng như thế này nữa, và tại sao lại nên nông nổi như vậy?
V́ thế cho nên đừng dùng lá phiếu của ḿnh chỉ v́ thương hay ghét, mà hăy dùng nó để mang lại lẻ phải, mang lại sự an lành và mang lại an toàn cho chính bản thân ḿnh, gia đ́nh ḿnh và con cháu của ḿnh.
Hăy cho người ḿnh ghét cơ hội mang lại ấm no, hạnh phúc cho mọi người. Hay là cho người ḿnh thương cơ hội để tổn thương mọi người thâm lần nữa?
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US News on Nov. 03, 2024
